Comparing regression methods to predict species richness patterns

Multivariable regression models have been used extensively as spatial modelling tools. However, other regression approaches are emerging as more efficient techniques. This paper attempts to present a synthesis of Generalised Regression Models (Generalized Linear Models, GLMs, Generalized Additive Models, GAMs), and a Geographically Weighted Regression, GWR, implemented in a GAM, explaining their statistical formulations and assessing improvements in predictive accuracy compared with linear regressions. The problems associated with these approaches are also discussed. A digital database developed with Geographic Information Systems (GIS), including environmental maps and bird species richness distribution in northern Spain, is used for comparison of the techniques. GWR using splines has shown the highest improvement in accounted deviance when compared with traditional linear regression approach, followed by GAM and GLM

Global late Quaternary megafauna extinctions linked to humans, not climate change

The late Quaternary megafauna extinction was a severe global-scale event. Two factors, climate change and modern humans, have received broad support as the primary drivers, but their absolute and relative importance remains controversial. To date, focus has been on the extinction chronology of individual or small groups of species, specific geographical regions or macroscale studies at very coarse geographical and taxonomic resolution, limiting the possibility of adequately testing the proposed hypotheses. We present, to our knowledge, the first global analysis of this extinction based on comprehensive country-level data on the geographical distribution of all large mammal species (more than or equal to 10 kg) that have gone globally or continentally extinct between the beginning of the Last Interglacial at 132 000 years BP and the late Holocene 1000 years BP, testing the relative roles played by glacial–interglacial climate change and humans. We show that the severity of extinction is strongly tied to hominin palaeobiogeography, with at most a weak, Eurasia-specific link to climate change. This first species-level macroscale analysis at relatively high geographical resolution provides strong support for modern humans as the primary driver of the worldwide megafauna losses during the late Quaternary

IUCN Red List protects avian genetic diversity

Abstract not available.Elisabetta Canteri, Damien A. Fordham, Sen Li, Peter A. Hosner, Carsten Rahbek and David Nogués-Brav

Changes in the functional diversity of modern bird species over the last million years

Despite evidence of declining biosphere integrity, we currently lack understanding of how the functional diversity associated with changes in abundance among ecological communities has varied over time and before widespread human disturbances. We combine morphological, ecological, and life-history trait data for >260 extant bird species with genomic-based estimates of changing effective population size (Ne) to quantify demographic-based shifts in avian functional diversity over the past million years and under pre-anthropogenic climate warming. We show that functional diversity was relatively stable over this period, but underwent significant changes in some key areas of trait space due to changing species abundances. Our results suggest that patterns of population decline over the Pleistocene have been concentrated in particular regions of trait space associated with extreme reproductive strategies and low dispersal ability, consistent with an overall erosion of functional diversity. Further, species most sensitive to climate warming occupied a relatively narrow region of functional space, indicating that the largest potential population increases and decreases under climate change will occur among species with relatively similar trait sets. Overall, our results identify fluctuations in functional space of extant species over evolutionary timescales and represent the demographic-based vulnerability of different regions of functional space among these taxa. The integration of paleodemographic dynamics with functional trait data enhances our ability to quantify losses of biosphere integrity before anthropogenic disturbances and attribute contemporary biodiversity loss to different drivers over time

Partitioning and mapping uncertainties in ensembles of forecasts of species turnover under climate change

Forecasts of species range shifts under climate change are fraught with uncertainties and ensemble forecasting may provide a framework to deal with such uncertainties. Here, a novel approach to partition the variance among modeled attributes, such as richness or turnover, and map sources of uncertainty in ensembles of forecasts is presented. We model the distributions of 3837 New World birds and project them into 2080. We then quantify and map the relative contribution of different sources of uncertainty from alternative methods for niche modeling, general circulation models (AOGCM), and emission scenarios. The greatest source of uncertainty in forecasts of species range shifts arises from using alternative methods for niche modeling, followed by AOGCM, and their interaction. Our results concur with previous studies that discovered that projections from alternative models can be extremely varied, but we provide a new analytical framework to examine uncertainties in models by quantifying their importance and mapping their patterns

Response of an Afro-Palearctic bird migrant to glaciation cycles

We combine tracks of a long-distance migratory bird with high–temporal resolution climate data to reconstruct habitat availability month by month for the past 120,000 y. The seasonal changes of suitable habitat in the past imply that continued seasonal migration was necessary during the glacial maxima. Genomic-based estimates of effective population size indicate that more generally migratory lifestyles can be beneficially adapted to various climatic conditions. Our results provide a major step forward in understanding how migratory species will fare in the future and have important implications for how we understand the role of migration in the distribution of species and potentially speciation

Relationship between early development of spelling and reading

The research reported in this thesis examined the relationship between beginning spelling and reading. More specifically, it focussed on the relationship between the development of early reading and spelling in a context where the approach to early reading instruction includes systematic phonological awareness and decoding instruction. A critical assumption made by proponents of developmental early literacy models is that transfer of skills and knowledge from reading to spelling will occur spontaneously and without formal instruction (Frith, 1980). By contrast instruction-centred approaches make the assumption that there are critical pre-requisite skills that can and should be taught explicitly (Carnine, Silbert & Kameenui, 1997). The difference between these approaches is highlighted in the treatment of invented spelling, a popular activity in Western Australian junior primary classes. A series of studies was undertaken to examine the effect on invented and standard spelling performance of teaching Year 1 children phonological awareness and the strategy of sounding out words. Data were gathered from a range of settings using different research tools. The relationship between phonological awareness and beginning reading and spelling performance was explored initially through a single case study. A post-hoc study was then undertaken with a cohort of students who had received systematic decoding instruction to examine whether proficiency in the decoding of nonwords was related to spelling performance. This permitted an analysis of common sub-skills of decoding and encoding. In the main study the effect on different aspects of reading and spelling performance of using Let\u27s Decode, an approach that includes explicit phonological awareness and systematic decoding instruction, was investigated. In addition, an analysis was made of whether students who received explicit instruction in skills known to contribute to beginning reading and spelling produced superior invented spelling samples. A qualitative analysis was made of the. pre and post invented spelling tests of two pairs of students from the control and intervention groups matched on invented spelling and phonological awareness skills at the beginning of the year, and re tested at the end of Year 1. The final research question involved a single-subject research design to examine the effect of explicit instruction in isolating phonemes in words and prompts to \u27listen for sounds\u27 prior to, and during, the process of spelling words. The single case study revealed a child who was regarded as a competent speller and reader but who could only read words in a familiar context and who had developed a strategy for spelling words based on copying an adult model. This was interpreted as evidence supporting the need for phonological awareness instruction as a pre-requisite for spelling. The post-hoc analysis of a class of students who had received systematic decoding instruction showed that no student classified as a \u27good decoder\u27 could also be classified as a \u27poor speller\u27. This result was considered evidence of a strong link between the phonological knowledge that is required to decode and the role of alphabetic knowledge in spelling. The main study revealed phonological awareness and systematic decoding instruction was associated with superior invented and conventional spelling and reading performance on all reading and spelling measures. Of particular importance was the finding that students who commenced the study with very weak phonological awareness and who subsequently received systematic phonological and decoding instruction showed greater gains in invented spelling than matched students in the control condition. The single subject design showed the effectiveness of phonological awareness individualised instruction on invented spelling for weak students from both intervention and control conditions. It was concluded that the ability to invent spelling is improved when students receive explicit instruction in phonological awareness and systematic decoding but that some students, namely those with persistent weakness in phonological awareness, also require explicit prompts to apply their alphabetic knowledge to spelling words. The implications for instruction of these findings are discussed

The macroecology of phylogenetically structured hummingbird-plant networks

Aim To investigate the association between species richness, species' phylogenetic signal, insularity and historical and current climate with hummingbird-plant network structure. Location 54 communities along a c. 10,000 kilometer latitudinal gradient across the Americas (39ºN - 32ºS), ranging from sea level to c. 3700 m asl, located on the mainland and on islands, and covering a wide range of climate regimes. Methods We measured null-modeled corrected complementary specialization and bipartite modularity (compartmentalization) in networks of quantitative interactions between hummingbird and plant species. Using an ordinary least squares multi-model approach, we examined the influence of species richness, phylogenetic signal, insularity, and current and historical climate conditions on network structure. Results Phylogenetically-related species, especially plants, showed a tendency to interact with a similar array of partners. The spatial variation in network structure exhibited a constant association with species' phylogeny (R2=0.18-0.19). Species richness and environmental factors showed the strongest associations with network structure (R2=0.20-0.44; R2138 =0.32-0.45, respectively). Specifically, higher levels of complementary specialization and modularity were associated to species-rich communities and communities in which closely-related hummingbirds visited distinct sets of flowering species. On the mainland, warmer temperatures and higher historical temperature stability associated to higher levels of complementary specialization. Main conclusions Previous macroecological studies of interaction networks have highlighted the importance of environment and species richness in determining network structure. Here, for the first time, we report an association between species phylogenetic signal and network structure at macroecological scale. Specifically, null model corrected complementary specialization and modularity exhibited a positive association with species richness and a negative association with hummingbird phylogenetic signal, indicating that both high richness and high inter-specific competition among closely-related 150 hummingbirds exhibit important relationships with specialization in hummingbird-plant networks. Our results document how species richness, phylogenetic signal and climate associate with network structure in complex ways at macroecological scale

A multi-metric approach to investigate the effects of weather conditions on the demographic of a terrestrial mammal, the European badger (Meles meles)

Models capturing the full effects of weather conditions on animal populations are scarce. Here we decompose yearly temperature and rainfall into mean trends, yearly amplitude of change and residual variation, using daily records. We establish from multi-model inference procedures, based on 1125 life histories (from 1987 to 2008), that European badger (Meles meles) annual mortality and recruitment rates respond to changes in mean trends and to variability in proximate weather components. Variation in mean rainfall was by far the most influential predictor in our analysis. Juvenile survival and recruitment rates were highest at intermediate levels of mean rainfall, whereas low adult survival rates were associated with only the driest, and not the wettest, years. Both juvenile and adult survival rates also exhibited a range of tolerance for residual standard deviation around daily predicted temperature values, beyond which survival rates declined. Life-history parameters, annual routines and adaptive behavioural responses, which define the badgers’ climatic niche, thus appear to be predicated upon a bounded range of climatic conditions, which support optimal survival and recruitment dynamics. That variability in weather conditions is influential, in combination with mean climatic trends, on the vital rates of a generalist, wide ranging and K-selected medium-sized carnivore, has major implications for evolutionary ecology and conservation